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Snooze-fest to exciting times ahead
The 2024 UK election has come and gone, and the stock market has hardly blinked. While volunteers around the country worked tirelessly overnight counting votes, markets had a restful night’s sleep and woke with little to do. After all, a Labour victory had been priced in to markets many months before the election was even called.
This may have been the one of the most uneventful elections of the year, just behind Russia, but that doesn’t mean the UK is unexciting. Quite the contrary.
Projected number of seats won in the next general election in the UK in 2024
Source: YouGov, Statista as at 18 June 2024.
We’ve almost lost count of the number of Prime Ministers the UK has been through in recent years, and we certainly don’t have enough fingers and toes to keep track of the wider cabinet turnover. However, the UK now has a government in place with a clear majority, mandate to govern and little sight of near-term changes ahead. We’re not about to navigate the initial stages of Brexit negotiations and there’s hopefully not another pandemic looming. On this very day, we have the most stable backdrop the UK has had in almost a decade.
Of course, risk and uncertainty still exist, it always will. Something unexpected may be around the corner, especially as the Labour manifesto has left significant wiggle room for the policies they will begin to implement. However, the advantages that political stability can bring should not be understated, providing confidence to underlying business and both local and international investors alike. This is a stark contrast to other key economies and their ongoing elections.
Investors may begin quickly turning their attention to the UK shores. This new backdrop of political stability opens the door, allowing more investors to peek in. They may begin recognising the importance of the recent economic upside surprises. Inflation has fallen back to range, growth started the year by beating expectations, business investment is on the rise, and the consumer is now back experiencing real wage growth1. Some of this is beginning to be recognised, as markets have rallied, but even so, they remain close to historically low valuations. Next will be the hotly anticipated Bank of England rates cuts. Of course, challenges still remain but the UK has certainly become interesting.
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This may have been the one of the most uneventful elections of the year, just behind Russia, but that doesn’t mean the UK is unexciting. Quite the contrary.
Key policies offering investment opportunities
Whilst we have your attention, we’d also highlight a couple of policy areas that, although well known, we think are being underappreciated by the market. Ones that we’d expect to have significant impact on the UK economy in the coming years:
Housebuilding
Labour have committed to 1.5 million new homes over five years.2 To put this into perspective, the target number of new homes being created is more than that of Birmingham, the UK’s second largest city. There’s been much scrutiny on the achievability of our new Government’s target with many assuming this, like many political “promises”, is unlikely to be met. This could very well be the case, but we can say with some certainty that the direction of travel is clear. The government, and large swathes of the UK population, are demanding that new homes need to be built and in significant quantities. This has evident investment implications, particularly the massive tailwind being created for housebuilders and those involved in their supply chain. Housebuilders Bellway, (top 10 in UK Mid Cap as at 31/5/24)3 and MG Glesson (top 10 in UK Smaller Companies as at 31/5/24) are well run businesses positioned to benefit, the latter’s focus on affordable housing is particularly aligned with the government’s objectives focused on first time buyers.
New homes completed by private companies, housing associations and local authorities in the UK from 1949 to 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics, Statista as at September 2023.
Green policies: energy transition
One of Labour’s five missions, as laid out in its manifesto, is “Make Britain a clean energy superpower”4. They may have dropped their £28 billion per year green investment pledge, pointing to not being able to commit to a fixed amount of spending, but our new government is still placing the UK’s Net Zero commitments as a key policy cornerstone.
An analysis of key party manifestos carried out by green groups has shown Labour to be mid-table in its pledges, but four times more committed than the outgoing government. This means there will be a step change and, as with any structural shift, this poses risks and opportunities to different businesses. The policy level analysis notes one of Labour’s climate strengths is its focus on rapid renewable energy roll-out, especially with its objective of zero carbon electricity by 20305. The infrastructure behind our energy system will need to dramatically and quickly change with National Grid (Top 10 Holding in UK Equity Income as at 31/5/24)6 being a key facilitator. Earlier this year it announced it is investing £60 billion over the next five years7 in transmission and distribution infrastructure. They are doing so to meet not only the changing sources of the energy supplied but also, critically the growing demand, through greater electrification.
As green policies develop and strengthen, it’s not just infrastructure that we need to think about. As investors, we must consider all business and what they’re doing given the policies changes we will see across industries.
Overall manifesto rankings
Parties’ scores are based on strength of the climate and nature commitments in their manifestos and other major policy announcements.
Source: Greenpeace as at 2024
Bright times ahead
It may have been a snooze-fest of an election, but investors can wake up to exciting times for the UK.
Sources
1Source: Bank of England as at 20 June 2024. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2024/june-2024
2Source: Labour Manifesto as at June 2024.
3Source: Martin Currie and Franklin Templeton as at 31 May 2024. FTF Martin Currie UK Mid Cap and FTF Martin Currie UK Smaller Companies Funds shown.
4Source: Labour Manifesto as at June 2024.
5Source: Labour Manifesto as at June 2024.
6Source: Martin Currie and Franklin Templeton as at 31 May 2024. FTF Martin Currie UK Equity Income Fund shown.
7Source: National Grid plc as at 23 May 2024
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