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Reflections on 2024
The past year has been a positive one for global equities. US markets continued their leadership, while emerging markets outpaced developed international markets.
For most of the year, EM was among the best performing asset classes – driven positively by information technology (IT) stocks and China, which rallied following coordinated stimulus announcements. However, in the fourth quarter, EM faced headwinds coinciding with the election of Donald Trump as the next US president. Investors braced for import tariffs, US tax cuts, and other policies that are expected to favour domestic-oriented US companies. As a result, bond yields rose, the US dollar strengthened, US small-cap stocks rallied, and non-US equities declined.
The market’s initial reaction appears strikingly similar to the period following Trump’s 2016 win (see chart below). It’s important to note though that many of these trends reversed course during Trump’s first term – bond yields fell, the US dollar weakened, and US large-cap bested small-cap. Importantly, EM performed strongly, and China outperformed the US with a total return of over 100% during that time (versus the S&P’s return of 81%).
Performance of global equities following US election (2016 and 2024)
Source: Morningstar as at 9 December 2024. Market returns for Donald Trump’s presidency: 20 January 2017 to 19 January 2021.
Performance during Trump Presidency
Source: Morningstar as at 22 November 2024.
While we acknowledge that the political conditions and economic cycle are different this term, we also do not expect the market’s recent pessimism to persist. In fact, we believe that EM is well positioned to benefit in both the near and long term, as we discuss in this piece. As we look to 2025 and beyond, we believe long-term, structural opportunities persist in EM especially within China, India, and the IT sector.
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Risk warnings – Investors should also be aware of the following risk factors which may be applicable to the strategy shown in this document.
- Investing in foreign markets introduces a risk where adverse movements in currency exchange rates could result in a decrease in the value of your investment.
- This strategy may hold a limited number of investments. If one of these investments falls in value this can have a greater impact on the strategy’s value than if it held a larger number of investments.
- Smaller companies may be riskier and their shares may be less liquid than larger companies, meaning that their share price may be more volatile.
- Emerging markets or less developed countries may face more political, economic or structural challenges than developed countries. Accordingly, investment in emerging markets is generally characterised by higher levels of risk than investment in fully developed markets.
- The strategy may invest in derivatives Index futures and FX forwards to obtain, increase or reduce exposure to underlying assets. The use of derivatives may result in greater fluctuations of returns due to the value of the derivative not moving in line with the underlying asset. Certain types of derivatives can be difficult to purchase or sell in certain market conditions.